The fate of the planet 這個星球的命運

News Release 16-Apr-2021

Unconventional takes on pandemics and nuclear defense could protect humanity from catastrophic failure

American Physical Society

Research News

From engineered pandemics to city-toppling cyber attacks to nuclear annihilation, life on Earth could radically change, and soon. Scientists will forecast the fate of the planet at a press conference during the 2021 APS April Meeting.

“Our Earth is 45 million centuries old. But this century is the first when one species–ours–can determine the biosphere’s fate,” said Martin Rees, the United Kingdom’s Astronomer Royal and a founder of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risks at Cambridge University.

“Our globally-linked society is vulnerable to the unintended consequences of powerful new technologies–not only nuclear, but (even more) biotech, cyber, advanced AI, space technology,” he added.

Royal astronomer predicts the world in 2050 and beyond

Rees thinks biohackers pose a particularly underappreciated threat to humanity. In the near future, simple equipment will enable people to reengineer the human genome irrevocably or build a superspreading influenza. Like drug laws, regulations could never prevent all such actions–and in a world more interconnected than ever before, the consequences would spread globally.

He will discuss other dangers: population rise leading to plummeting biodiversity, disastrous climate change, uncontrollable cybercriminals, plans for artificial intelligence that erodes privacy, security, and freedom.

But Rees is an optimist. He will offer a path toward avoiding these risks and achieving a sustainable future better than the world we live in today.

“If all of us passengers on ‘spaceship Earth’ want to ensure that we leave it in better shape for future generations we need to promote wise deployment of new technologies, while minimizing the risk of pandemics, cyberthreats, and other global catastrophes,” he said.

Scaling back missile defense could prevent a nuclear attack

A single nuclear weapon could kill millions and destroy a city instantaneously. Hundreds of weapons could wipe out functioning society in a large nation. Even a limited nuclear war could cause a climate catastrophe, leading to the starvation of hundreds of millions of people.

Recently, Russia, China, and North Korea have deployed new types of nearly unstoppable missiles.

“Missile defense is an idea that can sound appealing at first–doesn’t defense sound like the right thing to do?” said Frederick Lamb, astrophysicist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, cochair of the 2003 APS Study of Boost-Phase Missile Defense, and chair of the current APS Panel on Public Affairs Study of Missile Defense and National Security.

“But when the technical challenges and arms race implications are considered, one can see that deploying a system that is intended to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles is unlikely to improve the security of the United States,” he said.

Lamb points to the United Kingdom’s decision to increase its nuclear arsenal by 44%, possibly motivated by Russia’s new missile defense system around Moscow. He sees the move as yet another sign that existing limits on nuclear weapons are unraveling. Even missile defenses that would never work in practice can catalyze the development of new nuclear weapons and increase global risk.

Lamb will share what may happen if the United States ramps up new missile defense systems.

“What is done about nuclear weapons and missile defenses by the United States and other countries affects the safety and survival of every person on the planet,” he said.

FEATURED TALKS

The World in 2050–and Beyond (X06.1)
10:45 a.m. – 11:21 a.m. CDT, Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Martin Rees, [email protected]
Livestream: Access here
Abstract: http://meetings.aps.org/Meeting/APR21/Session/X06.1

Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defense (Y05.2)
2:06 p.m. – 2:42 p.m. CDT, Tuesday, April 20, 2021
Frederick Lamb, [email protected]
Livestream: Access here
Abstract: http://meetings.aps.org/Meeting/APR21/Session/Y05.2PRESS CONFERENCE

Register for the press conference to be held on Zoom at 11:00 a.m. CDT, Monday, April 19, 2021.

Speakers:

• Martin Rees (Cambridge)
• Frederick Lamb (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

###

About 2021 APS April Meeting

Complimentary registration is available to journalists and public information officers for the express purpose of gathering and reporting news and information from the meeting. All prospective attendees must register to access the virtual meeting platform: https://my.aps.org/NC__Event?id=a0l5G00000CNAUJQA5

Staff reporters, freelance writers, and students are welcome. Those who have not previously attended APS meetings as press or do not directly receive the APS journals tip sheet may submit a request for APS press credentials by completing the form on this page: http://info.aps.org/press

Please visit the April Meeting Newsroom for a list of other press conferences and presentations featuring newsworthy research.

About APS

The American Physical Society is a nonprofit membership organization working to advance and diffuse the knowledge of physics through its outstanding research journals, scientific meetings, and education, outreach, advocacy, and international activities. APS represents over 55,000 members, including physicists in academia, national laboratories, and industry in the United States and throughout the world. Society offices are located in College Park, Maryland (Headquarters), Ridge, New York, and Washington, DC.

這個星球的命運

從大流行的流行病到城市爆發的網絡攻擊再到核毀滅，地球上的生命可能會發生根本性的改變，並且很快就會發生。科學家將在2021年APS 4月會議的新聞發布會上預測地球的命運。

“我們的地球已有4500萬個世紀之久。但是，本世紀是一個物種（我們）能夠決定生物圈命運的第一個世紀。”英國天文學家皇家（Royal），劍橋大學存在風險研究中心的創始人馬丁·里斯（Martin Rees）說。

他補充說：“我們全球聯繫的社會容易遭受強大的新技術的意外後果-不僅是核能，而且還有（甚至更多）生物技術，網絡，先進的人工智能，太空技術。”

皇家天文學家預測2050年及以後的世界 里斯認為，生物黑客對人類構成特別低估的威脅。在不久的將來，簡單的設備將使人們能夠不可逆轉地改造人類基因組或製造超級傳播的流感。

就像禁毒法一樣，法規永遠也無法阻止所有此類行動-在比以往任何時候都更加相互關聯的世界中，後果將在全球範圍內蔓延。 他將討論其他危險：人口增長導致生物多樣性暴跌，災難性的氣候變化，無法控制的網絡犯罪分子，破壞隱私，安全和自由的人工智能計劃。 但是里斯是個樂觀主義者。他將提供一種避免這些風險並實現比我們今天生活的世界更好的可持續未來的道路。

他說：“如果我們所有人都在’太空飛船’上，要確保我們為子孫後代保持更好的狀態，我們需要促進新技術的明智部署，同時將大流行，網絡威脅和其他全球性災難的風險降到最低，”。

縮減導彈防禦系統可以防止核攻擊 單個核武器可以立即殺死數百萬人，並摧毀一個城市。數百種武器可能會摧毀一個大國的社會運轉。即使是一場有限的核戰爭也可能造成氣候災難，導致數億人挨餓。

最近，俄羅斯，中國和朝鮮已經部署了新型近乎不可阻擋的導彈。 “導彈防禦是一個聽起來很有吸引力的想法-防禦聽起來不是正確的做法嗎？” 伊利諾伊大學厄本那-香檳分校的天體物理學家，2003年APS推進階段導彈防禦研究聯合主席，現任APS導彈防禦與國家安全公共事務研究小組主席，弗雷德里克·蘭姆（Frederick Lamb）說。

他說：“但是，當考慮到技術挑戰和軍備競賽的影響時，可以看到部署旨在防禦洲際彈道導彈的系統不太可能改善美國的安全。”

蘭姆指出，英國決定將其核武庫增加44％，這可能是由於俄羅斯在莫斯科周圍建立了新的導彈防禦系統。他認為此舉是表明核武器現有限制正在瓦解的又一個跡象。甚至在實踐中永遠無法發揮作用的導彈防禦系統也可以促進新核武器的發展並增加全球風險。

蘭姆將分享美國加強新的導彈防禦系統時可能發生的情況。

“美國和其他國家對核武器和導彈防禦系統採取的措施會影響地球上每個人的安全和生存，”他說。